Find out how climate change is likely to change in the future.

Greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to increase.

To understand how our climate may change in future, scientists have developed different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios based on assumptions about future demographic change, economic development and technological advances.

Based on these ranges of emissions, the concentration paths are similar up to about 2030, and then diverge markedly.

For more information on greenhouse gas scenarios visit the Climate Change in Australia website.

The world is tracking along a path that is more like a medium to high emissions scenario, where the planet could warm by 1.4 to 3.1 °C.

Temperature

As with the world as a whole, Australia over the coming decades is expected to experience continued warming, with more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cool days.

Hotter weather would bring a longer fire season for the south and east and an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days.

How is climate likely to change in the future? (2021, October 20). Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australian Government - CSIRO. https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/Climate-change-QA/Future-climate

Victoria signals end of coal by announcing a new 95% renewable target. It’s a risky but vital move.

Wood, T. (2022, October 20). Victoria signals end of coal by announcing a new 95% renewable target. It’s a risky but vital move. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/victoria-signals-end-of-coal-by-announcing-a-new-95-renewable-target-its-a-risky-but-vital-move-192941

See Chapter 6: Health impacts of climate change (p. 37)

The World Health Organization (WHO) has described climate change as the defining issue for public health in the 21st century, with implications at the global, national and community levels. Our climate in Victoria has already warmed by 1°C. Temperature rise above 1.5°C will lead to major and irreversible damage to ecosystems and human health.

Evidence Base

Direct physical and mental health impacts include:

- Respiratory conditions such as asthma rates are on the rise in Melbourne (15%), which will be exacerbated by exposure to pollution, thunderstorm asthma events and bushfire smoke haze.

- Increased deaths associated with heat stress with studies showing increased demand on health services and higher mortality rates in Melbourne during the 2009 and 2014 heatwaves.

- Changes in the spread of infectious diseases (e.g. COVID-19 pandemic).

- Eco or climate related anxiety is increasing, particularly amongst young people.

• Indirect health and wellbeing impacts include risks to our cities water and food security, and risks to local infrastructure such as open green spaces and transport.

- Melbourne currently has 23% tree canopy coverage and 21% percent of open space across our municipality. This contributes to reducing the urban heat island effect, in turn impacting on the health our community.

Flash flooding and power outages can disrupt transport systems across the city. Sustainable transport use in the municipality is good (41%) and car ownership is declining. This contributes to exercise as well as reduced greenhouse gas emissions.

- Drought conditions will impact agricultural food production and the cities food security. There is increasing demand for localised food production in Melbourne (62% of the community currently produce their own food in some form).

• Research from the City of Melbourne’s Municipal Emergency Planning Committee shows that residents think extreme weather will have a moderate or great deal of impact and that they currently have low levels of preparedness.

Health and wellbeing action plan 2021 - 2025. (n.d.). City of Melbourne. https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/SiteCollectionDocuments/health-and-wellbeing-action-plan-2021.pdf

Read Seriously ugly: here’s how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century. This is an informative piece about many aspects of climate change futures.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2021, March 31). Seriously ugly: Here's how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875

7-star housing is a step towards zero carbon – but there’s much more to do, starting with existing homes.

Pears, A., Armstrong, G., Delafoulhouze, M., & Moore, T. (2022, August 29). 7-star housing is a step towards zero carbon – but there’s much more to do, starting with existing homes. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/7-star-housing-is-a-step-towards-zero-carbon-but-theres-much-more-to-do-starting-with-existing-homes-189542

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After many false dawns, Australians finally voted for stronger climate action. Here’s why this election was different.

McDonald, M. (2022, May 25). After many false dawns, Australians finally voted for stronger climate action. Here’s why this election was different. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/after-many-false-dawns-australians-finally-voted-for-stronger-climate-action-heres-why-this-election-was-different-183645

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Tall timber buildings are exciting, but to shrink construction’s carbon footprint we need to focus on the less sexy ‘middle’.

Timber is a sustainable, renewable material that stores carbon while in use, and the appeal of using it in skyscrapers is clear. 

Ottenhaus, L. (2022, August 14). Tall timber buildings are exciting, but to shrink construction’s carbon footprint we need to focus on the less sexy “middle.” The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/tall-timber-buildings-are-exciting-but-to-shrink-constructions-carbon-footprint-we-need-to-focus-on-the-less-sexy-middle-188143

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When it comes to strategies of environmental management in Australia, the voices and aspirations which have been largely missing, both historically and contemporaneously, are those of Australia’s First Peoples.

First Peoples view Country as kin to be looked after and actively loved. Australia’s First Peoples have been developing complex technologies, practicing aquaculture, making bread, farming and caring for Country for many millennia. 

Read about it here.

How Aboriginal perspectives can shape new landscapes. (2020, March 19). The Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub. https://nespurban.edu.au/2020/03/19/how-aboriginal-perspectives-can-shape-new-landscapes/

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